基于图模型的流域生态补偿冲突研究

Research of River Basin Eco-compensation Conflicts Based on Graph Model

基于流域生态补偿中存在各方利益群体,分析流域生态补偿冲突事态,能够揭示我国流域生态补偿中不同利益群体的诉求,为决策者提供多方面有价值的决策信息。文章采用图模型法,识别局中人、策略和偏好信息,借助决策路径直观地预测整个流域生态补偿冲突事件的演变情景并寻求冲突的均衡解。最后,将图模型法应用于广东省和江西省交界处的东江流域,在策略层面动态追踪利益相关者的状态。结果证明,图模型的结果与冲突实际发展轨迹相吻合,验证了图模型是解决冲突问题的有效方法。

There are different kinds of stakeholders in river basin eco-compensation.By analyzing the conflicts of river basin eco-compensation,the requests in different stakeholders could be revealed to provide various and valued recommendations for decision makers.In this paper,graph model is used to distinguish players,options and preference information,and policymaking method is adopted to directly predict the whole development of the conflicts of river basin eco-compensation and search for equilibrium solution of the conflicts.Then,graph model is applied in Dongjiang River Basin located in the common border of Guangdong Province and Guangxi Province to dynamically follow up the situation of stakeholders in the policymaking way.The results show that the actual developing trace of conflicts is in compliance with the results from the graph model,verifying that graph model is effective for conflict solution.