GM(1,1)-星野法沉降预测模型研究与应用

Research and application of GM(1,1)-Hoshino Nori settlement prediction model

围绕目前高速公路路基沉降预测精度不高,预测方法适用性不强等问题,基于组合预测理论,借助MATLAB计算软件,将基于灰色理论的GM(1,1)预测模型和星野法沉降预测模型线性组合,以组合预测误差的平方和最小为标准确定两种预测方法的权重系数,提出GM(1,1)-星野法组合预测模型。结合广东某高速公路施工期以及运营期路基实测沉降数据,GM(1,1)-星野法组合预测模型预测结果较两种方法单独预测结果具有更高的预测精度,工程适用性更强。

The prediction accuracy of subgrade settlement is not high and the applicability of prediction method is not strong.Based on the combination forecast theory,with the help of MATLAB software,GM(1,1)-Hoshino Nori combination forecasting model is proposed.This model is based on the grey theory GM(1,1)forecasting model linear combination model and Hoshino Nori settlement prediction,taking the combination forecasting error square as standard to determine the weight coefficients of two kinds of prediction methods and minimum standards.With the Guangdong highway construction period and operation period of subgrade settlement data,GM(1,1)-Hoshino Nori combination forecasting model prediction results are better than the two methods separately predicted results.The present method has higher prediction precision,stronger engineering application.