Apriori-AHP算法在电力通信网业务风险评估中的研究及应用

Research and Application of Business Risk Assessment of Electric Power Communication Network Based on Apriori-AHP Analysis

为提高电力通信网业务风险评估准确性和有效性,提升主动预警能力,本文提出一种融合关联规则分析和层次分析法的风险评估方法 Apriori-AHP。该方法首先基于多源异构的海量原始数据构建初始指标集,在此基础上采用改进的Apriori算法确定多种因素与目标的关联度,实现指标筛选;其次采用AHP确定最终的指标体系及各因素的权重,并加权求得最终的综合风险评估指标。仿真结果和实际应用效果均表明,Apriori-AHP避免了传统层次分析法的不足,使筛选的指标更加合理,提高了电力通信网业务风险评估准确度和有效性,使运维人员能及时发现电力通信网及其承载业务存在的隐患和风险,实现主动预警与智能检修,提高电力业务运行的安全性和稳定性。

With combination of both association rules analysis and analytic hierarchy process,an algorithm named“Apriori-AHP”for assessing the risk is proposed in order to improve accuracy and validity of business risk assessment of electric power communication network.After an intimal index set is set up based on the heterogeneous multi data,the improved Apriori algorithm is used to determine the correlation of various factors and objectives to achieve the index screening.The analytic hierarchy process algorithm is used to determine the weight of each factor to obtain the final comprehensive risk evaluation index.The simulation results and the practical application results shows that the Apriori-AHP avoids disadvantages of the traditional analytic hierarchy process,make the selection of indicators more reasonable and improves accuracy and validity of the business risk assessment algorithm of electric power communication network.The operation and maintenance staff can timely detect the hidden dangers and risks so as to guide active warning and intelligent maintenance of electric power communication network,finally improves the security and stability of the electric power business.