基于OP模型的高速公路交通事故人员伤害程度分析方法

Analysis Method of Highway Traffic Accident Injury Severity Based on OP Model

高速公路交通事故经常会给交通参与者带来巨大的人身伤害,而事故处理只关注责任划分,欠缺对客观因素的考虑.以高速公路交通事故伤者的伤害程度为研究对象,构建了事故伤害程度影响因素分析方法.以伤害程度为因变量,从能够表征人、车、路、环境的客观因素中选取候选自变量,利用主成分分析方法提取主要自变量,而后采用Ordered Probit模型分析主要自变量对高速公路交通事故伤害程度的影响,并对模型的显著性进行检验.研究结果表明:安全气囊、车型和速度限制对伤害程度的影响显著.该方法可为交通事故分析提供参考,有助于交通管理措施的制定.

Freeway traffic crashes often cause great personal injury to traffic participants.The crash handling only focuses on determining liabilities and lacks consideration of objective factors.Taking the injury degree of highway traffic crash victims as the research object,the analysis method of the factors affecting the degree of accident injury was constructed.With the degree of injury as the dependent variable,candidate independent variables were selected from the objective factors that can characterize people,vehicles,roads,and environment.The main independent variables were extracted using the principal component analysis method,and then the main independent variables were analyzed for highway traffic accidents using the Ordered Probit model.The impact of the degree of injury and test the significance of the model.The results of the study show that airbags,vehicle models and speed limits have a significant impact on the degree of injury.This method can provide a reference for analysis of traffic accidents and contribute to the formulation of traffic management measures.