国际贸易网络上经济危机传播的仿真分析与研究

Dynamic evolution of crisis spreading and its spatial features on international trading network

为了深刻理解金融危机的传播过程与其内在的传播机制,为国家确定国际间的经济关系与政策提供可靠的理论依据,运用复杂科学理论,同时利用联合国商品贸易统计数据库,构建了国际贸易关系的有向加权网络,通过计算机仿真模拟了级联扩散过程,提出了基于网络连边失效的经济危机传播分析方法。仿真结果显示,贸易国之间的经济依赖关系是影响网络上危机爆发的重要成因,整个级联过程涌现出的是相同空间率先蔓延的传播特征,并着重分析了11个重要节点在级联扩散过程中的传播行为。上述揭示对于政府制定与改善宏观经济的贸易政策具有积极的作用,同时也为应对未来危机的爆发提供了有益的启示。

To understand the dynamic evolution of economic crisis and reveal its mechanism based on macroeconomic system,this paper used international trade data provided from World Trade Organization to build an international trading of weighted and directed network by complex network theory.It used a simple model of cascading crisis to simulate numerically an economic crisis,the results revealed that the GDP and tradevolumn might both have significant influent on the avalanche size of the spreading,but not strong positive correlation.Then,it utilized target selection strategies to remove edges in ITN,the data showed that the economic interdependence between countries could significantly affect the convergence behavior of spreading on ITN.Furthermore,statistical analysis showed that the spatial features had identified within dynamic evolution,which suggested those countries from specially regions were vulnerable to crisis spreading.The findings in this study are helpful to deeply understand the evolution of crisis spreading and against to the emergence of cascading failures in economic system.