某型导弹靶试方案的风险与成本分析

Risk and Cost Analysis of Firing Test Program for A missile

目的研究传统的二次抽样检验靶试方案和使用方推荐的一次抽样检验靶试方案中的使用方风险和生产方风险,并计算使用方在接收导弹时采用不同靶试方案需承担的费用。方法首先建立导弹自主飞行可靠度与单发杀伤概率之间的关系,通过计算抽样检验中的接收概率得出使用方风险和生产方风险。通过计算不同可靠度下的接收概率及靶试费用得出使用方接收每发导弹平均分摊的靶试费用。结果传统靶试方案中使用方风险和生产方风险相当,而新靶试方案中生产方风险高出使用方风险较多,且若采用新靶试方案,使用方每接收1发导弹需承担的靶试费用比传统靶试方案的费用高。结论最后建议使用方仍沿用传统的二次抽样检验靶试方案。

Objective To study consumer's risk and producer's risk in the traditional twice sampling inspection firing test program and the new single sampling inspection firing test program recommended by the consumer,and calculate the expense difference between the two firing test programs when the missiles are accepted by the consumer.Methods The relation between the missile’s self-flying reliability and the single killing probability was established firstly,then the consumer's risk and producer's risk were acquired through calculating the acceptance probability in the sampling inspection.The expense allocated to each missile afforded by the consumer using the different firing test program was acquired through calculating the acceptance probability with the different reliability and the firing test cost.Results The producer's risk was approximately equal to the consumer's risk in the traditional firing test program,but the producer's risk was much higher than the consumer's risk in the new firing test program,and the allocated expense on a missile afforded by the consumer using the new firing test program was higher than that when using the traditional firing test program.Conclusion Finally,it is suggested to adopt the traditional twice sampling inspection program.