基于空间关联的长三角城市群空间溢出效应研究

Research of Spatial Spillover Effects in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration Based on Spatial Correlation

文章基于长三角城市群核心区城市2000-2015年经济发展的相关数据,引入距离衰减的全区域产出变量,建立空间计量模型,研究长三角城市群区域经济发展空间关联性和空间溢出效应。结果表明:长三角城市群经济发展存在显著的空间正相关,符合距离衰减规律。长三角城市群在经济发展过程中存在显著的"热点"和"冷点"地区,落在扩散效应区和低速增长区的城市已经形成空间俱乐部趋同。长三角城市群经济发展存在空间异质性,原有核心区16个城市主要分布在HH象限,新加入的10个城市主要分布在LL象限,"高高"、"低低"的城市总体分布格局保持不变,呈现出典型的两极集聚状态。长三角城市群原有核心区16个城市和新核心区26个城市经济增长的空间溢出效应分别为7.195 2和5.106 9,空间溢出效应在区域经济发展中扮演着重要角色。

Based on the economic development data of the core cities in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration from 2000 to 2015,by introducing the whole regional output variable with distance attenuation to build a spatial econometric model,the paper studies the spatial correlation and spatial spillover effects of regional economic development in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.The results show that:There is a significant spatial correlation in the economic development of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration,which is in accordance with the distance attenuation law.There are significant“hot spot”and“cold spot”areas in the process of economic development in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration,the cities which fall in the diffusion effect region and the low growth region have formed the spatial club convergence phenomenon.The spatial heterogeneity exists in the economic development of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.The previous 16 core cities mainly fall in the HH quadrant,the new 10 cities most fall in the LL quadrant.The“high-high”and“low-low”urban overall distribution pattern remains unchanged,presenting a typical bipolar agglomeration state.The spatial spillover effects of economic growth in the previous 16 core cities and the present 26 core cities of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration are 7.195 2 and 5.106 9 respectively.The spatial spillover effects play an important role in regional economic development.