严格管制还是放松管制——去杠杆背景下的市场进入政策研究

Regulation or Deregulation——Research on Market Entry Policy Based on the Background of Deleveraging

"潮涌式"的市场进入容易导致过剩产能,是否也会加高行业的杠杆率水平呢?在我国,以进入管制为特征的产业政策是政府调控市场进入的主要工具,该管制政策又会对行业的杠杆率产生如何的影响呢?为此,本文基于市场进入这一视角,运用动态随机一般均衡模型分析了政府市场进入管制政策对上游行业杠杆率的影响机制。研究发现,政府放松市场管制会拉动上游行业的杠杆率水平,而且,政府前期的管制程度越高,放松管制时上游行业的杠杆率水平上升的幅度就相对越高。对政府而言,若不放松管制,社会福利就会受损;若放松管制,就必然面临高杠杆问题。面对这一两难选择,政府在放松管制时需要把握好时机,降低决策成本。

Market entry may lead to overcapacity.Will it raise the leverage rate of the industry?In our country,the industrial policy is the main tool for the government to regulate and control the market entry,and how does the policy affect the leverage rate of the industry?Based on the perspective of market entry,this paper analyzes the influence mechanism of market entry policy to the leverage rate of upstream industry by DSGE.This paper finds that deregulation of market entry will raise the leverage rate of upstream industry.Moreover,if the regulation became stricter in the early stage,the leverage rate of upstream industry would be higher when the government releases regulation on market entry.However,if the government does not deregulate market entry,the social welfare will be damaged.If the government deregulates market entry,it has to face the problem of high leverage rate.In the face of such a dilemma,the government needs to seize the opportunity to reduce the cost of decision-making when it comes to deregulation.