城步地区土坡坡度与滑坡发育概率关系研究

Study on the Relationship between Soil Slope and Landslide Development Probability in Chengbu

为查明城步地区土质滑坡发育规律,发掘区内土坡坡度与滑坡发育概率之间关系。通过运用Matlab数学软件对城步地区126处滑坡发育的原始土质斜坡坡度进行研究,发现区内滑坡发育频数与坡度具有正态分布特征。调用Jarque-Bera法检验其近似服从正态分布,又运用软件内置拟合工具箱求出滑坡发育概率与坡度的正态函数关系式,得到不同土坡坡度区间的滑坡发育概率。研究结果表明:研究区内土坡坡度区间为25°~42°时,发生滑坡概率为70.60%;坡度在18°~25°与42°~49°区间时,发生滑坡概率为23.82%;坡度小于18°或大于49°时,发生滑坡概率为3.87%。所得分析结果与实际调查的情况吻合较好,可为区内滑坡防治规划提供参考,也为其他从事地质灾害研究的工作者提供新的研究思路。

In order to find out the soil landslide development rules and dig out the relationship between soil slope and landslide development probability in Chengbu,the author will make use of Matlab mathematical software to study on the original soil slope gradient in 126 landslides in Chengbu.As a result,there is a normal distribution characteristic between landslide development frequency and gradient,then,the author will take Jarque-Bera approach to inspect the approximate normal distribution,after that,adopt the built-in fitting toolbox in the application software to obtain the normal function relational expression between landslide development probability and gradient,and get the landslide development probability within the different soil slope intervals.The result of research shows that:The landslide occurrence probability is 70.60%when the slope gradient interval is 25°-42°within the research area;If the slope gradient is in 18°-25°and 42°-49°interval,the landslide probability will be 23.82%;But,the landslide probability will be reduced to 3.87%as long as the slope gradient is smaller than 18°or larger than 49°.In consideration of the favorable fitting between analysis results and actual survey,the analysis results can provide reference for the landslide prevention and control planning in the area,and offer the new study thought to workers who work on the geological disaster research.