基于灰色系统预测GM(1,1)模型的商洛市人口预测

Population Prediction of Shangluo City Based on Grey System Prediction GM(1,1) Model

商洛市作为关中-天水经济区的重要城市,它的人口规模直接决定了在经济区域中城市的建设思路和发展政策,因此对城市人口的准确预测就显得非常重要。为了提高对商洛市人口的预测精度,根据2008—2016年的商洛市人口数据,采用灰色系统预测GM(1,1)模型建立商洛市人口变化的数据模型,并与实际数据进行了拟合。结果表明,该模型与实际数据的拟合性较好,预测得到的数据与实际数据差距较小,满足相应的验证精度,可以用来预测未来的商洛市人口趋势,为城市的建设思路和发展政策提供参考。

As an important city in Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Zone,the population size of Shangluo City directly determines the city construction and economic development policy in the region,hence the accurate prediction of the population of the city is very important.In order to improve the prediction accuracy of population in Shangluo,according to the population data of Shangluo from 2008 to 2016,the grey system prediction GM(1,1)model is used to establish the data model of population change in Shangluo,and fitting with the actual data.The results show that the model fits well with the actual data,and the predicted data is less close to the actual data,which meets the relevant validation accuracy.It can be used to predict the future population trend of Shangluo,and provide reference for the construction ideas and development policies of the city.