粤东西北地区服务业增长及其影响因素的实证研究

Empirical Research on Growth of Service Industry in Eastern,Western and Northern Guangdong and Its Influencing Factors

对粤东西北地区12个城市服务业增长的偏离份额分析表明,粤西、粤东服务业增长较快,粤北服务业增长缓慢,区域中心城市湛江、汕头服务业增长潜力较大,引领作用突出,但区域中心城市韶关则不然。从内部结构看,消费性服务业是各地区服务业增长的"优势行业",公共性服务业是"衰退行业",生产性服务业为"劣势行业"。影响粤东西北城市服务业"量"增长的主导因素为消费需求、人口密集度和城市化水平,而服务业"质"增长的关键在于增强服务业与工农业的互动融合。

Using Shift-Share Method to explore the growth of service industry in the eastern,western and northern Guangdong,it shows that the service industry in western and eastern Guangdong grows rapidly,while the service industry in northern Guangdong grows slowly.The central cities of Zhanjiang and Shantou are the regional leaders and show great potentials,but central city Shaoguan is not the case.It also finds that the consumer service sector can be defined as acompetitive sector”in all the regions,the public service sector is“declining sector”,and the producer service sector is“veak sector”.For the eastern,western and northern Guangdong,the key factors to enhance the quantitative growth in service industry are the consumer demand,population density and urbanization,while the convergence of service industry as well as industrial and agricultural industries is the key way to improve the quality of the growth of service industry.