济南市产业结构调整对经济增长贡献的时空分析

Spatiotemporal analysis on the contribution of industrial structure adjustment to economic growth in Jinan city

基于GDP产业结构贡献统计的多部门经济模型,分析1978-2015年济南市产业结构调整对经济增长贡献的时间趋势特征;以截面数据为基础研究济南10个区县产业结构对经济增长贡献的空间差异。研究表明,济南市产业结构调整对经济增长的贡献呈波动下降趋势,波动周期变长、幅度变小,贡献值小于同期山东省平均水平。产业结构变动对经济增长贡献的存在空间差异,但差异在变小,贡献率表现为外围城区高于中心城区,与各地区经济发展阶段相吻合。

In view of analysis of the time trend characteristics of Jinan City's contribution to economic growth from 1978 to 2015 based on multi-sector economic model for contribution statistics of GDP industrial structure,the spatial differences of industrial structure contribution to economic growth in Jinan 10 districts and counties were studied based on the cross-sectional data.The research shows that the contribution of Jinan's industrial structure adjustment to economic growth shows a downward trend of volatility,the period of volatility has become longer and smaller,and the contribution is less than the average level of Shandong Province during the same period.The differences in the contribution of changes in industrial structure to economic growth have spatial differences,but the differences are getting smaller.The contribution rate shows that the peripheral urban areas are higher than the central urban areas and coincide with the economic development stages of all regions.