基于TOPSIS的“一带一路”沿线国家投资风险评估

TOPSIS-based Investment Risk Assessment of Countries along“the Belt and Road”

针对在"一带一路"战略框架下讨论沿线国家的投资风险问题,首先从政治、经济和社会三个方面提炼出"对华关系"等13个评价指标,构成综合、机遇和风险三个评价维度;然后采用多属性决策问题的理想解法(TOPSIS)构建投资风险评估模型,以熵权法确定各评价指标权重;在此基础上,以新加坡等17国数据为例,根据不同评价指标组合,计算得到各国综合、机遇和风险3个评价维度的量化评价结果。对该量化评价结果的分析,可作为对"一带一路"沿线国家的投资参考。

Under“the Belt and Road initiative”framework,the investment risks of countries along the route are discussed.First,13 evaluation indicators such as“relations with China”are extracted from three aspects of politics,economy and society,which constitute three evaluation dimensions:synthesis,opportunity,and risk,and then an investment is constructed using the TOPSIS method of multi-attribute decision-making problems.The risk assessment model uses the entropy weight method to determine the weight of each evaluation index.Based on this,using data from 17 countries such as Singapore as an example,according to different evaluation index combinations,the quantitative evaluation results of the three evaluation dimensions of the country's comprehensive,opportunity and risk are calculated.The analysis of the quantitative evaluation results can serve as a reference for the investment of countries along“the Belt and Road”.