渤海海域油类、类油类危险品船舶避难地选取策略研究

The research of selection strategy of places of refuge for ships in the Bohai Sea

为减轻油类、类油类危险品船舶事故污染,提前确定船舶避难地具有重要意义。文章以渤海海域25个港口和55个锚地作为研究对象,对在3种事故类型(起火爆炸(事故类型1)、污染物泄漏(事故类型2)、存在沉没风险(事故类型3))下,如何选取船舶避难地进行研究。首先分别确定评价不同事故类型采用的评价指标;然后,针对每个港口和锚地,采用归一化方法,其对应的各评价指标均被赋予1~100的分值;再次,对各评价指标的分数按照相同的权重进行叠加;最后,根据叠加结果,分别对在3种事故类型下,各港口和锚地的得分进行排序,在此基础上绘制了避难地选取策略图。排序靠前的适合作避难地,排序靠后的不适合作避难地,因此,依据最终排序结果,可以得出适合作为避难地的地点,以及不适合作为避难地的地点:事故类型1时应优先选择庄河港、皮口港等,避免选择锚地49、锚地50等地点;事故类型2时皮口港、锚地12等最适合,避免选择潍坊港、锚地50等地点;而事故类型3时应优先选择威海港和朝阳港等地点,避免选择大连港、旅顺新港等地点。

It is important to build appropriate places of refuge for ships to reduce the potential harm of oil spills and other accidents.In this study,25 harbors and 55 anchorages in the Bohai Sea were preselected as the potential places of refuge for ships,and three potential accident scenarios were assumed:fire and explosion,pollutant leakage,and the risk of sinking.Firstly,the main factors featured in the evaluation of these three scenarios were formulated;secondly,the risk factors for every site were allocated a score from 1 to 100 respectively,according to their value relative to normalization;thirdly,the scores derived from these factors involved in the three scenarios were superimposed,using the same weighting respectively;finally,the results of the 80 sites were obtained and ordered,and a strategy map was drawn.The results showed that the Zhuanghe Port and the Pikou Port are the preferred places of refuge for ships with a higher risk of fire and explosion,and that anchorage 49 and anchorage 50 should be excluded.Should a potential for leakage be present,the Pikou Port and anchorage 12 are the most appropriate refuge stations,whereas the Weifang Port and anchorage 50 are inappropriate.The Weihai Port and the Chaoyang Port are preferred refuge places for ships with a higher risk of sinking,and the Dalian Port and the Lüshun Port should be avoided.