人力资本对产业结构转型升级作用的实证分析——以云南省为例

An Empirical Analysis of the Role Human Capital Plays in Transformation and Upgrading of Industrial Structure——Take Yunnan Province as an Example

[目的/意义]目前对人力资本与产业结构关系的研究日益增加,但关于云南省区域产业结构与人力资本开发的研究较少。本文拟分析云南省人力资本水平对产业结构升级的影响,以期弥补云南省人力资源与产业结构关系研究的匮乏。[方法/过程]基于云南省1995—2014年相关数据,构建人力资本与产业结构之间的协整方程和误差修正模型,从长期趋势和短期波动两个方面分析人力资本存量与结构对产业结构升级的影响,并采用脉冲响应分析及方差分解计量方法进行实证研究。[结果/结论]云南省人力资本水平与产业结构之间存在长期均衡关系和短期波动:长期内人力资本存量对产业结构升级的促进作用最大,短期内人力资本内部结构对产业结构升级的促进作用最大,高层次人才对产业结构升级作用显著,人力资本分布越公平越能促进产业结构升级。

[Purpose/Significance]The research on the relationship between human capital and industrial structure is increasing,but the research on regional industrial structure and the development of human capital in Yunnan is few.This paper analyzes the effect of human capital in Yunnan on industrial structure upgrading,for the purpose of filling the blank of such studies.[Method/Process]Based on the related data in Yunnan in 1995-2014,the paper builds an integration equation and error correction model of human capital and industrial structure to analyze the effect of human capital stock and structure on industrial structure upgrading from two aspects:long-term trend and short-term fluctuation.It also carries out an empirical research with impulse response analysis and variance decomposition measuring method.[Result/Conclusion]Results show that there exits a long-term equilibrium relationship and short-term fluctuation between the level of human capital in Yunnan and the industrial structures.For the long-term trend,human capital stock has a positive effect on industrial structure upgrading,but for the short-term,the inner structure of human capital accelerate the upgrading of industrial structure.High-level talents play greater roles in upgrading of industrial structure.Higher distribution equity makes better upgrading industrial structure.