对外贸易对经济增长方式转变的影响研究——基于安徽省城市数据和面板门槛模型的分析

A Study of Impact of Foreign Trade on Transformation of Economic Growth Mode:an Analysis Based on Data of Cities of Anhui Province and Panel Threshold Model

基于安徽省16个城市的数据和面板门槛模型,对外贸发展对经济增长方式转变的影响进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:当选取人力资本水平、经济发展水平为门槛变量时,出口贸易对安徽省经济增长方式的转变没有显著的影响;当金融发展水平为低或高时,出口贸易和进口贸易均有利于安徽省经济增长方式的转变,并且当金融发展水平为高时,其影响更大,当金融发展处于中等水平时,二者对安徽省经济增长方式的转变无显著影响;人力资本水平越高,进口贸易对安徽省经济增长方式转变的促进作用越大;当经济发展水平为低时,进口贸易对安徽省经济增长方式的转变无显著影响,当其为高时,进口贸易有利于安徽省经济增长方式的转变。

Based on data of 16 cities of Anhui province and panel threshold model,this paper makes an empirical analysis of the impact of foreign trade development on transformation of economic growth mode.The results of this study show that when the level of human capital and the level of economic development are chosen as threshold variables,export trade has no significant impact on transformation of economic growth mode in Anhui province;When the level of financial development is low or high,export trade and import trade are beneficial to transformation of economic growth mode in Anhui province,and when it is high,the impact is greater,and when it is moderate,they have no significant impact on transformation of economic growth mode in Anhui province;The higher the level of human capital is,the greater the promoting effect of import trade on transformation of economic growth mode in Anhui province is;When the level of economic development is low,import trade has no significant impact on transformation of economic growth in Anhui province,and when it is high,import trade is beneficial to transformation of economic growth mode in Anhui province.