济宁青山羊生长曲线的拟合与分析

Fitting and Analysis of Growth Curve for Jining Grey Goats

为研究济宁青山羊的生长发育规律,本试验测定了不同性别济宁青山羊0~18月龄的体重,采用Von Bertalanffy、Gompertz和Logistic 3种非线性生长模型拟合其生长曲线。结果表明:3种模型均能较好地拟合济宁青山羊的生长曲线(R2>0.970),其中Von Bertalanffy模型的拟合结果更接近实际测量值,拟合效果最佳。进一步分析模型拟合参数以及估计值与实测值,提示公羊生长拐点为3.873月,拐点体重为10.379 kg;母羊生长拐点为3.635月,拐点体重为9.387 kg。3种模型估计的公羊拐点体重均高于母羊,拐点月龄均迟于母羊。

To study the growth and development regularities of Jining grey goat,the weights of 0~18-month-old Jining grey goat with different sex were measured in the experiment.Their growth curve were fitted by three nonlinear growth models including Von Bertalanffy,Gompertz and Logistic.The results showed that all the three models could better fit the growth of Jining grey goat(R 2>0.970).The fitting results of Von Bertalanffy model was much closer to the actual values,so it had the best fitting effect.Through further study the fitting parameters and estimated values of Von Bertalanffy model and the actual values,we concluded that the inflection growth point of ram was at the age of 3.873 months and the corresponding body weight was 10.379 kg,while that of ewe was at the age of 3.635 months and the body weight was 9.387 kg.The inflection point weight of rams was higher than that of ewes,and the inflexion point age of rams was larger than that of ewes in the three models.