烟台市水果产业可持续发展对策初探

Sustainable Development Countermeasures of Fruit Industry in Yantai City

近10余年来,烟台水果价格波动异常、频繁滞销,这与产量变化密切相关.本文利用山东省统计年鉴数据,运用多元统计分析方法,分析了近10余年来烟台水果产量的变化特征;探讨了种植结构、农业投入(灌溉面积、果园面积、复合肥和农药施用量、农用柴油使用量、农村用电量)、气候条件(气温、降水量、日照时长)对水果产量的影响;并在此基础上提出了烟台水果产业的可持续发展对策.

In the past 10 years,the abnormal fluctuation of the price of fruit in Yantai and frequent slack demand were closely related to the change of production.According to the statistical yearbook of Shandong Province,the change characteristics of Yantai fruit production during the recent 10 years were analyzed by use of the multivariate statistical analysis method.The influence of factors such as planting structure,agricultural input(irrigation area,orchard area,application amount of compound fertilizer and pesticide,agricultural diesel oil consumption,rural power consumption),climatic conditions(temperature,precipitation,sunshine duration)on the fruit production was discussed,and the sustainable development countermeasures of Yantai fruit industry were put forward on the bases of this discussion.