基于综合灾情指数方法的2012—2016年江西省自然灾害灾情分析

Analysis on Natural Disaster of Jiangxi Province from 2012 to 2016 Based on Comprehensive Disaster Index Method

[目的]评估2012-2016年江西省灾情区域分布格局,为相关部门快速评估、科学决策提供参考。[方法]选择受灾人口、因灾死亡失踪人口、紧急转移安置人口、农作物受灾面积、绝收面积、倒塌房屋户数、损坏房屋户数和直接经济损失等指标进行评估,利用灾情综合指数法构建灾情指数,评估2012-2016年江西省自然灾害灾情。[结果]从灾情绝对指数来看,赣州市、九江市、上饶市灾情突出,南昌市、新余市、鹰潭市灾情较轻;从灾情相对指数来看,景德镇市、萍乡、九江市相对重,南昌市、新余市、鹰潭市相对轻;综合考虑灾情绝对指数和相对指数,分为4个类型,即灾情总量较大且对本地产生较大影响(上饶市、抚州市、九江市)、灾情总量较大但对本地影响较小(吉安市、宜春市、赣州市)、灾情总量较小但对本地影响较大(萍乡市、景德镇市)以及灾情总量较小且对本地影响较小(新余市、鹰潭市、南昌市)。评估结果与各设区市的实际情况相符。[结论]该研究所给出的综合灾情指数法是评估区域灾情强弱的合理有效方法,可以推广使用。

[Objective]The aim was to evaluate disaster area distribution pattern of Jiangxi Province from 2012 to 2016 so as to provide reference for rapid assessment and making scientific decision of relevant departments.[Method]The indicators including the affected population,the death and missing tolls,the evacuated population,the area of affected crops,the area of the crop without outcome,the number of collapsed buildings,the number of damaged buildings and the direct economic losses were used,and the comprehensive disaster index method was used to construct the disaster index,which evaluated the disaster from 2012 to 2016 in Jiangxi Province.[Result]According to the absolute index,the disaster of Ganzhou,Jiujiang and Shangrao were serious,while Nanchang,Xinyu and Yingtan were less affected.According to the relative index,the natural disaster of Jingdezhen,Pingxiang and Jiujiang was relatively heavy,while the natural disaster of Nanchang,Xinyu and Yingtan was relatively light.Considering the absolute and relative index,the cities of Jiangxi Province could be divided into four types as followed:the first class was that both of the absolute and relative disaster indexes were large;the second class was the absolute index was large but the relative was small;the third class was that the absolute index was small but the relative index was large;the fourth class was that both of the absolute and relative disaster indexes were small.The evaluation result was the same as actual situation and the comprehensive disaster index.[Conclusion]The comprehensive disaster index method in this study should be widely used,and is an effective method to assess the disaster.