中国流通业发展与能源消费的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Development of China's Circulation Industry and its Relation with Energy Consumption

本文运用因素分解法和协整及协整检验研究中国流通业发展与能源消费的关系,并得出如下结论:流通业产值与能源消费存在双向正向因果关系;流通业能源消费的增量的影响因素主要是产值、其次是部门能源强度、最后是结构因素;交通运输、仓储和邮政业能源强度的下降会促使流通业能源强度的下降;交通运输、仓储和邮政业比重的下降将有助于石油消费强度的下降;批发、零售业和住宿、餐饮业比重的下降将有助于电力消费强度的下降.在此基础上,提出降低流通业能源强度的路径和建议.

Factor decomposition and cointegration and cointegration tests were used to study the relationship between the development of China’s circulation industry and energy consumption.The conclusion is drawn as follows:there is a two-way positive causal relationship between the output value of the circulation industry and energy consumption;the major factors influencing the increment of energy consumption in the circulation industry are firstly the output value,secondly department energy intensity,and finally the industry structure.In the circulation industry,the declining energy intensity of transportation,storage and postal services will induce decline of the energy intensity;the declining proportion of wholesale,retailing and accommodation and catering industry will contribute to the decline in the intensity of power consumption.On this basis,suggestions are offered to reduce the energy intensity of circulation industry.