基于IPAT模型的云南省城市空间扩张影响因素分析

ANALYSIS OF IMPACT FACTORS OF URBAN SPATIAL EXPANSION BASED ON IPAT MODEL FOR YUNNAN PROVINCE

利用IPAT模型及其结构分解方法,定量研究云南省城市空间扩张与人口、富裕度、技术进步之间的关系,通过STIRPAT模型,分析云南省城市空间扩张各因素的影响程度。结果表明:人口和富裕程度对云南省城市空间扩张呈增加效应,技术水平对其呈减少效应。通过岭回归拟合发现,人口、人均GDP每增加1%,云南省城市面积分别扩大2.64%和0.112%,单位GDP城市土地用地量每增加1%,城市面积则减少0.105%。这一结果对解决云南省有限土地资源与社会经济发展和城市空间规模过度扩展之间的突出矛盾具有现实意义。

This article,based on IPAT model and the structural decomposition method,made an quantitative analysis of several factors influencing urban spatial expansion in Yunnan Province,respectively population,affluence and technological progress.By utilizing STIRPAT model,effects on urban spatial expansion in Yunnan Province of the three factors were analyzed.The results show that population and affluence on urban spatial expansion show an increase in effect;on the contrary,the decrease of urban spatial expansion is influenced mainly by technology.Through ridge regression,it is found that 1%increase in population and per capita GDP,there was 2.64%and 0.112%increase in urban area in Yunnan Province,respectively.In addition,when the land use of urban land per unit of GDP increases by 1%,the urban area will reduce by 0.105%.This results has a practical significance for solving prominent contradiction between limited land resources and the development of social and economic and the excessive expansion of urban scale in Yunnan Province.