我国外汇储备与通货膨胀的关系研究

Research on the Relationship between China's Foreign Exchange Reserves and Inflation

为了厘清外汇储备与通货膨胀之间的关系,从货币供应的角度,分析了外汇储备对通货膨胀的影响,建立向量自回归模型VAR,综合运用协整分析、Granger因果检验等方法,把外汇储备对通货膨胀的影响的动态效应进行了实证分析。结果显示"外汇储备→货币流通量→通货膨胀"的机制是非常突出的,外汇储备、货币流通量和通货膨胀之间有着均衡的协调关系。

In order to clarify the relationship between foreign exchange reserves and inflation,the impact of foreign exchange reserves on inflation was analyzed from the perspective of money supply,and then vector autoregression model VAR was established,using co-integration analysis,Granger causality test and other methods to analyze the dynamic effect of foreign exchange reserves on inflation.The results showed that the mechanism of“foreign exchange reserves,currency circulation,inflation”was very prominent,and there was a balanced coordination relationship between foreign currency reserves,currency circulation and circulation surplus.