中国矿产资源产出率历史变化及预测

Mineral Resource Output Ratio of China

文章运用狭义资源产出率计算方法,采用表观消费量数据,从国家层面对1997—2015年中国矿产资源产出率进行了核算和分析。结果表明:研究期内,中国矿产资源产出率从1997年的0.55亿元/万吨提高到2015年的0.75亿元/万吨,总体保持上升趋势,年均增长1.1%,总体提高了36%;预计到2020年,矿产资源产出率将在2015年基础上提高17%左右。建议:(1)加快矿产资源供给侧结构性改革;(2)加强矿产资源消费数据的统计监测;(3)强化矿产资源产出率的规划实施;(4)加快矿业"绿色低碳循环"发展。

This paper calculates and studies mineral resource output ratio of China between the year of 1997 and 2015 by using the calculation method of narrow resource output rate based on apparent consumption data.The result shows that mineral resource output ratio increased from 55 million yuan per ten thousand tons in 1997 to 75 million yuan per ten thousand tons in 2015,average annual growth rate of 1.1%,and the total growth rate of 36%.On this basis,this paper is estimated that by 2020,mineral resource output ratio will increase by about 17%from the 2015 level.To reach that goal,this paper suggests that we need to accelerate our efforts on supply-side structural reform of mineral resources;step up our statistic and monitoring efforts on mineral resource consumption;and enhance efforts to the implementation of plans of mineral resource output ratio;and speed up green,and low-carbon development in mining industry.