土地财政与地方经济增长的动态影响研究——基于VAR模型的实证分析

A Study on the Dynamic Impact of Land Finance and Local Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis Based on VAR Mode

采用1998—2014年全国31个省(区、市)土地出让金收入和地方GDP构建省级面板数据,基于VAR模型,利用脉冲响应和方差分解,得出主要结论:(1)通过协整检验及格兰杰因果检验发现土地财政演变与地方经济增长之间存在双向动态影响关系;(2)短期内,相对于地方经济增长,土地财政演变更容易受到自身冲击的影响;(3)外生经济冲击对土地财政的发展演变具有正向推动作用;(4)地方经济的增长在某种程度上已经对土地财政的发展形成了路径依赖,因此土地财政现象在短期内是不会完全消失的;(5)地方政府通过土地财政维持经济增长的方式不可持续。建议:政府要正确认识土地财政收入与地方经济增长的关系,完善不同级政府间事权与支出责任相匹配的财政体制;地方政府要在供给侧改革大环境下,因地制宜,优化产业结构,找到促进经济增长的发力点和持续推动力。

Based on the VAR model,we analyze the land transfer income and local GDP in 31 provinces(autonomous regions or municipalities)from the year of 1998 to 2014,using the impulse response and variance decomposition to draw the main conclusions:(1)Through the cointegration test and the Granger causality test,it is found that there is a two-way dynamic relationship between the evolution of land finance and local economic growth.(2)In the short term,the evolution of land finance is more likely to be affected by its own impact than the local economic growth.(3)The impact of exogenous economy has a positive effect on the evolution of land finance.(4)To some extent,the local economy growth has formed a path dependence on the land finance evolution,so the land finance will not disappeared completely in the short term.(5)It is not sustainable to maintain the local economic growth by depending on the land finance.It is suggested that the government should correctly understand the relationship between land finance and local economic growth,and improve the financial system where the authorities and expenditure responsibilities of different levels of government are matched.Besides,the local government should optimize the industrial structure according to the local conditions and find the key point and sustained driving force of economic growth under the background of supply-side reform.