收入不确定性条件下我国农村居民消费行为的非对称性研究

Research on the Asymmetry of Rural Residents' Consumption Behavior under the Condition of Income Uncertainty

遵从由美国芝加哥学派奠基人奈特所提出的不确定性的定义,选择"收入预期离差率"来度量收入不确定性,以此区分出了"优于预期"的正向不确定性和"劣于预期"的负向不确定性,以面板数据为样本,实证检验了收入不确定性对我国农村居民消费行为的影响.结果表明:收入不确定性对我国农村居民消费行为的影响具有非对称性,农村居民对于"劣于预期"的负向不确定性表现得更加敏感;同时收入不确定性的非对称性影响在不同收入水平和不同消费品类型间存在一定的差异性.最后从收入层面为如何提高农村居民消费倾向提供新的政策依据.

This paper follows the definition of uncertainty by the founder Knicks(2005)who is a professor in the Chicago school,and selects the"Income Expected Deviation Rate"to measure income uncertainty,and thus distinguishes"better than expected"to the uncertainty and the negative uncertainty of"worse than expected",then through the panel data empirical test of income uncertainty on the impact of rural residents in China consumption behavior.The result shows that the impact of income uncertainty on the consumption behavior of rural residents in China is asymmetric,and the rural residents are more sensitive to the negative uncertainty of"worse than expected".At the same time,the asymmetric effects of income uncertainty have differences between different income levels and different consumer product types.This paper provides a new policy basis for how to improve the consumption tendency of rural residents from the income level.