黑龙江省近35年农业气象灾害受灾率变化特征

Change characteristics of agrometeorological disaster rates in Heilongjiang Province in recent 35 years

利用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法、Morlet小波分析方法和GIS软件分析,黑龙江省1980~2015年农业气象灾害数据。结果表明,1980~2015年,黑龙江省农业气象灾害受灾率呈降低趋势,且降低趋势在95%置信水平下显著;农业气象灾害在近35年内呈周期性震荡变化,受灾率变化主要时间尺度为18a。农业受灾率和受灾面积比重在黑龙江省空间分布规律基本一致,在同一纬度上,二者均从西向东呈递减趋势,在同一经度上,从南向北呈先增后减变化。农业气象灾害主要集中在黑龙江省西南部地区。

The temporal and spacial change characteristics of agrometeorological disasters which directly affected agricultural productivity were studied by analyzing the area data affected by agrometeorological disasters during 1980-2015 in Heilongjiang Province via Mann-Kendall statistical method,Morlet wavelet analysis method and GIS software analysis.The results showed that the disaster rates revealed significantly subsiding trend over the period of 1980-2015 at the 95%confidence level.The disaster rate changed periodically at 5a and 18a time scale,and the 18a time scale was especially outstanding.The rate and the area affected by agrometeorological disasters in Heilongjiang Province had the same spatial change characteristics.They all decreased from the west to the east at the same latitude and increased firstly then decreased from the south to the north at the same longitude.The disaster areas were mainly located in the south-west and midlands of Heilongjiang Province.