中国资金存量表的统计和分析

Statistics and Analysis of Capital Stock Tables in China

以存款和信用两类金融工具,建立自2007年以来七个部门的部门—部门季度资金存量表,探究近些年来我国货币和信用创造的机制。我国以间接金融主导、银行主导和相对封闭为典型特征的金融体系,自2009年后发生了重大的结构性变化,突出表现为非金融企业负债和净融入规模的快速上升,以及非银行金融机构资产和净融出规模的快速上升。利用矩阵方法对部门间交易关系的分析表明,所有部门间都直接和间接地存在金融交易关系,并以此参与货币和信用的创造,其推动金融活动总量扩张或收缩的金融乘数,与名义GDP有显著的共周期现象。银行仍是系统的核心,而银行和企业之间的相互增强机制最为关键。

We use two types of financial instruments,deposits and credits,to set up the sectoral quarterly capital stock tables of seven sectors since 2007,with a view to exploring the mechanisms underlying money and credit creation in China in recent years.The Chinese financial system,formerly a relatively closed system dominated by banking and indirect finance,has undergone a major structural change since 2009.This change is strikingly evident in the rapid increase in the scale of debt and net borrowing on the part of non-financial enterprises and the rapid increase in the scale of assets and net lending of non-banking financial bodies.Using the matrix method,our analysis of inter-sectoral transactional relationships shows that all sectors have direct and indirect financial transaction relationships and thus participate in the creation of money and credit.It is noteworthy that the financial multipliers promoting the expansion or contraction of total financial activity are significantly procyclical with nominal GDP.Banks remain at the heart of the system,with the mutual reinforcement of banks and enterprises being the most critical element.