MPOPTM:一种基于热量模型的微博舆情预测模型

MPOPTM: A Microblog Public Opinion Prediction Model Based on Thermodynamic Model

针对微博舆情发现领域的"冷启动"问题,提出一种基于热量模型的微博舆情预测模型(MPOPTM)。在该模型中,首先描述舆情检测中有关热量传播的介质定义,提出微博热量与热传导率的概念,建立微博與情预测模型。然后计算出每条微博在单位时间内增加的热量和热传导率,根据其改变量判断是否产生新的舆情。实验结果表明,MPOPTM能有效的检测出在微博中广为流传的微博舆情与刚刚产生地新舆情,克服现有技术中的"冷启动"问题。

According to the relationship between the medium and heat propagation velocity,presents a microblog public opinion prediction model based on thermodynamic model(MPOPTM).In MPOPTM,presents the concepts and formal definitions of medium,heat,thermal conductivi?ty in the public opinion prediction domain.Then the mathematical models of the thermodynamic for public opinion prediction are estab?lished.By using MPOPTM,the heat added and thermal conductivity of a post of microblog can be calculated quantitatively.Experiments on real dataset show that the performance of our method is better than traditional methods,and it is useful for predicting public opinion from microblog.