摘要
PPP项目因社会资本的引入能更有效率地提供公共产品和服务,但由此也加深了社会风险隐患。为了探讨PPP项目的社会风险,从源头上进行防范,本文通过文献研究和案例分析,总结出PPP项目社会风险形成机理,从政府、社会资本、公众和环境四个方面对影响PPP项目社会风险发生的风险因子进行了辨识;基于形成机理和利用所识别的风险因子建立PPP项目社会风险事故树模型,通过计算事故树的最小割集、径集以及结构重要系数,得到引发PPP项目社会风险的全部路径595条,有效防治方案8个,政府方对PPP项目社会风险的发生影响最大。该研究可为PPP项目社会风险评估和管控提供依据。
The PPP project can provide public goods and services more efficiently because of the introduction of private sector,but it also deepens the social risks.In order to discuss the social risk of PPP project and prevent it from the source,this paper summarizes the formation mechanism of social risk of project and analyzes the social risk factors of PPP project from four aspects:government,private sector,public and environment.Based on the formation mechanism and identified risk factors,fault tree of Social Risk of PPP Projects is established.By calculating the minimum cut sets,path sets and the important coefficients of the accident tree,the result shows that there are a total of 595 paths causing the social risk,8 effective prevention programs,and the government has the most influence on the occurrence of the social risk of PPP projects.The paper provides basis for social risk evaluation and management in PPP projects.
作者
陈志鼎
王优
Chen Zhiding;Wang You(College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering,Three Gorges University,Yichang,Hubei 443002,China)
基金
国家自然科学基金(51509143)
三峡库区生态环境教育部工程研究中心开放基金(KF2016-11)
