基于BDD的牵引变电所主接线失效风险评估

Failure Risk Assessment of Main Connection Lines in Traction Substations Based on BDD Method

准确分析与度量牵引变电所主接线设备失效的可能性与后果严重程度,并及时评估其失效风险以保障牵引供电系统的安全可靠运行.首先利用ITE规则将牵引变电所主接线故障树转化为BDD结构,然后利用递归公式对BDD结构进行递归访问来计算BDD根节点的概率、基本事件的Birnbaum重要度和关键重要度.根据BDD算法程序对主接线失效故障树的分析计算,得到了主接线失效风险事故的发生概率和引发事故的关键因素,为牵引变电所检修与维护提供了理论依据.对比验证表明,BDD方法与割集方法分析结果吻合,且BDD方法计算速度更快,从而为牵引变电所主接线失效风险评估提供了新思路.

The possibility and consequences of failure for the main electrical connections equipment in traction substations were analyzed and measured accurately and the failure risk was evaluated timely to ensure the safe and reliable function of traction power supply system.Firstly,the ITE rule was adopted to convert the fault tree of main electrical connections of traction substations into a BDD structure.Then the recursive formula was used to recursively access the BDD structure to calculate the probability of the BDD root node and Birnbaum importance and key importance of the basic events.Based on BDD algorithm program,fault tree analysis of the failure in main electrical connections was conducted to obtain the occurrence probability of failure risk accident for main electrical connections and the key factors causing the accident,providing a theoretical basis for the overhauls and maintenance of traction substations.Comparison and verification show that the analysis results of BDD method are in good agreement with the analysis results from cut set method,and that the BDD method is faster in calculation speed than cut set method,which provides a new idea for failure risk assessment of main electrical connections of traction substations.