2018年中国物价走势分析与判断

The Analysis and Judgment of Chinese Price Trend in 2018

2017年中国物价走势总体继续保持平稳的发展态势,居民消费价格(CPI)低位运行,2017年中国CPI同比涨幅为1.6%,上涨幅度比2016年回落了0.4个点,与全年3%的调控目标相比低了1.4个百分点,物价整体的特征为温和上涨。2017年物价涨幅较为平稳,被控制在一个相对较低的水平,既和2016年以来政府实施的一系列宏观调控措施有关,又受了外部国际大环境的影响,全球货币市场利率相对稳定,全球金融市场运行平稳,跨境资本流动趋稳。2018年美国、欧洲等主要经济体的宽松货币政策将继续退出,全球货币政策将继续收紧,这也会在一定程度上抑制全球大宗商品价格上涨的幅度,对中国经济构成的输入性通胀影响不大。2018年度CPI走势前高后低,整体温和上行。

In 2017,China’price continued to maintain stable development trend,the consumer price index(CPI)is running at a low level.In 2017,China’s CPI was up 1.6%over the same period,the rate of increase has dropped by 0.4 points compared with that in 2016,which was 1.4%points lower than that of the 3%target in the whole year,the overall feature of prices was a mild rise.The price increase was relatively stable,which was related to a series of macro-control measures implemented by the government since 2016,and was also affected by the external international environment.In 2017,the interest rates in the global money market were relatively stable,and the global financial market was running smoothly,the liquidity of cross-border capital became stable.In 2018,the loose monetary policy of major economies in the US and Europe will continue to withdraw,and global monetary policy will continue to tighten,which will also restrain the rise of global commodity prices to a certain extent and have little impact on the Chinese economy’s input inflation.In 2018,CPI will show a trend from high to low,on the whole,it is a mild uplink.