中国是否应当全面放开生育政策?

Should China Fully Liberalize the Birth Policy?

在中国实行了几十年的“一胎政策”已经做出相应调整,这是十分必要的。但是,学界有关“全面放开生育政策”的看法仍有待于进一步澄清。笔者认为:增加劳动力数量,并不等价于提高劳动生产力;依靠增加人口数量来刺激供求,由此增大的供求只能是数量上的平面扩张,而非结构上的有效升级;我国当下最大国情之一,是人口总量严重失衡的局面依然未得到有效控制;未来的“中国制造”不是劳动密集型,而是技术密集型;未来的养老问题,不能依靠增加人口数量来解决;依靠市场自发调节生育率,很难实现人口增长的有效平衡。

It is necessary to make corresponding adjustments to the one-child policy that has been implemented for decades in China.However,the view of a comprehensive policy of opening up childbearing still needs to be further clarified.I believe that increasing the quantity of labor force is not equivalent to improving labor productivity;the supply and demand stimulated by increasing the population can only be a plane expansion on quantity not an effective upgrade on structure;the serious imbalance of the total population has still not been effectively controlled which is one of China's current main realities;the future“made in China”is not labor-intensive but technology-intensive;the future pension problem can not be solved by increasing the population and relying on the market to adjust fertility is difficult to achieve an effective balance of population growth.