2018年一季度辽宁省生猪生产形势分析及后期预测

Situation Analysis and Late Forecast of Production of Pigs in Liaoning Province in the First Quarter of 2018

2018年一季度,辽宁省乃至全国的生猪生产未能延续2017年的较好水平,生猪价格急转直下,特别是春节过后,活猪价格一路狂跌,周跌幅和累积跌幅均创下近五年之最,养殖户生产陆续出现亏损,全年生产效益不容乐观。为此笔者专程赴省内朝阳等生猪生产大市对生猪生产形势进行调研,了解原因。本文结合生产监测数据、一线调研结果对目前辽宁省的生猪生产情况进行了分析,并对后期发展趋势进行了预测。

In the first quarter of 2018,the production of pigs in Liaoning province and even the whole country failed to continue the better levels of 2017,and the price of pigs went down sharply.Especially after the new year,the price of live pigs went down sharply.Both the weekly decline and the cumulative decline were the highest in nearly five years.For this reason,I went to Chaoyang and other pig production in the province to investigate the situation of pig production,understand the reasons.Based on the production monitoring data and the first-line research results,this paper analyzes the pig production situation in Liaoning province,and forecasts the development trend in the later period.