制造业出口技术复杂度升级提高了中国资本回报率吗?

Dos the Improvements of Export Sophistication in Manufacturing Industries Increase China's Capital Return?

制造业出口技术复杂度快速深化是我国当前应对外需疲软、实现对外经济发展方式转变的核心途径和重要内容,那么这种以出口品内涵提升为标志的行为是否会提升中国的资本回报率呢?文章基于其他学者的研究基础上,在测度出2002-2014年省级区域制造业出口技术复杂度和实际资本回报率的基础上,探索上述问题的答案和优化方案。研究发现:一方面中国制造业出口技术复杂度深化会对资本回报率产生显著的抑制效应,这一抑制效应甚至超过了资本深化给资本回报率带来的负向影响,而中国制造业外力依赖型技术赶超引致型高成本和逆比较优势技术赶超引致型低出口价格是上述现象出现的主要诱因。另一方面,外商直接投资、消费、出口和人力资本虽能推动省级区域资本回报率的提升,但其"单力"无法扭转出口技术复杂度攀升对资本回报率的抑制效应,而特定的"双重"组合拳则能有效缓解,甚至扭转抑制效应。最后基于实证结论,文章给出了制造业出口技术复杂度和资本回报率协同提升的政策建议。

Improvements of export sophistication of manufacturing industry is a key way to cope with inadequate foreign demand and development pattern change,however dose the improvement of export sophistication increase capital return?In order to answer this question,this paper takes advantage of the methods,which is put forward by other scholars to calculate the export sophistication and capital return of China on provincial level,then estimate the effects of export sophistication to capital return and find the way to better them.The results show that:on the one hand,the effect of export sophistication to capital return is negative,which is even larger than the negative effects of capital deepen to the capital return,the main reasons to this situation are China s reverse comparative advantage and foreign power dependent catch-up behavior.On the other hand,FDI export consumption and human capital can improve the capital return of different province,single Interaction effects of above factors with export sophistication can t relieve the restrain effects,but double combination interaction effects of above factors with export sophistication can relieve even reverse the restrain effects.Finally,based on the above results,this paper puts forward some constructive suggestions.