城镇化与居民乳制品消费——基于省际动态面板的实证研究

Urbanization and Dairy Consumption of Residents:An Empirical Study Based on Provincial Dynamic Panel Data

基于1992—2011年全国29个省(市、区)的面板数据,采用动态面板估计方法实证检验城镇化对居民乳制品消费的影响及其机制,结果表明:城镇化对城镇居民乳制品消费有显著的促进作用,城镇化率每上升1个百分点,城镇居民人均乳制品消费平均提高1.1个百分点。从影响机制看,城镇化主要通过收入水平、就业结构与消费可及性等3条途径对城镇居民乳制品消费产生影响,其中收入水平的作用最为明显。异质性分析结果显示,城镇化的乳制品消费促进效应在低水平城镇化阶段更加显著,收入水平和就业结构对处于低水平城镇化阶段的居民消费乳制品消费的影响更大,而消费可及性的作用则在高水平城镇化阶段时更加明显。

Based on the provincial panel data of 1992-2011,the System Generalized Moment Method was used to test the impact of urbanization on dairy consumption of urban residents and its mechanism.The results showed that urbanization has a significant positive effect on the dairy consumption of urban residents.The per capita dairy consumption of urban residents was increased by 1.1 percentage points for every 1 percentage increase in urbanization rate.The effect mainly through the income level,employment structure and consumption convenience,which the role of income level was most obvious.Heterogeneity analysis showed that the dairy consumption promotion effect of urbanization was more significant in the low level of urbanization stage.The income level and employment structure had a relatively greater impact on the spending power and consumption habits for the residents who were in the areas of low level urbanization stage.The consumption convenience played a greater role.