中国杠杆率结构联动分析——基于部门分化和区域分异双重视角

Analysis of Chinese Leverage Structure——Based on the Department Division and Regional Differentiation

近年来,随着经济增速的趋缓与结构转型的推进,我国总杠杆率水平急剧攀升,且受债务驱动增长模式及区域经济增长不平衡等因素影响,我国杠杆率与经济增长、金融稳定之间作用机制的复杂性进一步增加。考虑到我国区域经济增长不平衡与金融资源分布错综复杂的客观现实,要正确理解杠杆在我国经济增长中的作用进而制定积极稳妥的去杠杆政策必须考虑区域因素和部门因素。以2010—2016年全国30个省市区(不包含我国西藏和台湾地区)的总杠杆率、分部门杠杆率、金融波动及经济增长面板数据为样本构建空间杜宾模型,并基于部门分化和区域分异双重视角对我国杠杆率结构变动关联机制进行实证分析发现,我国区域杠杆水平存在空间相关性,但各部门杠杆率变动与本区域及其他区域总杠杆率变化的联动机制不尽相同。总体而言,金融杠杆率对总杠杆率具有显著正向影响,而其他部门杠杆率对总杠杆率的推动作用在不同区域具有不同的表现。因此,为实现稳增长与去杠杆之间的平衡,决策层应基于不同区域或部门影响机制,根据区域杠杆结构特征、经济结构调整进度及金融稳定程度制定差异化政策,通过影响和引导市场主体杠杆变动幅度和方向来实现稳增长与去杠杆的平衡。具体来讲,一是去杠杆必须注重区域间差异化政策的求同存异;二是去杠杆必须注重部门间杠杆波动的组合规律;三是去杠杆必须注重监管与宏观政策的合理选择与匹配。

In recent years,with the decrease of economic growth rate and the promotion of structural transformation,Chinese leverage ratio has been increased rapidly;influenced by such factors as debt-oriented growth pattern and the imbalanced regional economic growth,the complexity of relation among leverage ratio,economic growth,and financial stability has been further enhanced.Considering the reality of the imbalanced regional economic growth and the complex financial resources distribution,we should correctly understand the role of leverage in China’s economic growth to formulate the policy of deleverage with the consideration of regional and department factors.Taking total leverage ratio,department leverage ratio,financial fluctuation,and economic growth panel data as the sample,the authors establish the Spatial Durbin model(SDM);based on these,the authors also carry out an empirical research on the correlation mechanism of structural changes in China's leverage.The empirical results show that there is a spatial correlation among regional leverage levels in China;but the linkage mechanism of leverage change in different departments is different from that in other regions.Generally speaking,financial leverage ratio has a significant positive effect on total leverage ratio;and the role of other department leverage ratios in promoting total leverage ration in one regional is different from that in other regions.So to realize the balance between stable growth and deleverage,decisionmakers should formulate differentiated policies based on different influencing mechanism in different regions and departments,the characteristics of regional leverage structure,the process of economic restructuring,and the degree of financial stability;and they also should realize the balance between stable growth and deleverage by influencing and guiding the range and direction of changes in leverage.Specifically speaking,in deleveraging,we should,first,pay more attention to seeking common points while reserving difference in regional differentiated policies;second,we should pay more attention to the combination rule of department leverage fluctuation;and third,we should pay more attention to the rational choose and match of supervision and macro policy.