冬小麦不同生长阶段气象因素对产量影响的双重量化分析

Double Quantification Analysis of the Effect of Meteorological Factors on Yield in Winter Wheat at Different Growth Stages

为探究冬小麦各生育期的气象因素对其产量的影响程度,根据黄淮海冬小麦物候图将冬小麦生育期划分为9个生长阶段,选取河南省2005-2015年冬小麦的产量数据和日平均气象观测数据,利用指数平滑法计算出冬小麦的气象产量,建立气象影响因素集和灰色关联分析模型,双重量化分析河南省冬小麦不同生长阶段气象因素对产量的影响程度。结果表明,单重量化分析时,在播种期、分蘖期、越冬期和灌浆期,平均相对湿度对冬小麦气象产量影响最大;在返青期、拔节期和成熟期,平均风速对冬小麦气象产量影响最大;出苗期日平均气温对冬小麦气象产量影响最大;抽穗期光照时长对冬小麦气象产量影响最大。双重量化分析时,出苗期平均气温和日最高气温、分蘖期和越冬期平均相对湿度、拔节期平均风速对冬小麦气象产量影响较大。

In order to explore the influence of meteorological factors on the yield of winter wheat,the growth period of winter wheat was divided into nine growth stages according to the phonological map of winter wheat in Huanghuaihai area.Based on the yield data and average daily meteorological data of winter wheat in Henan province from 2005 to 2015,the meteorological yield of winter wheat was calculated by exponential smoothing method.The meteorological factors set and the grey relational analysis model were established,and the influence of meteorological factors on yield was analyzed by double quantification at different growth stages of winter wheat in Henan province.The results showed that in single analysis,the average relative humidity had the greatest effect on the growth of winter wheat during sowing stage,tillering stage,overwintering stage and filling stage;the average wind speed had the greatest impact on the growth of winter wheat during the periods of turning green stage,jointing stage and maturing stage.At seedling stage,the average daily temperature had the greatest effect on the growth of winter wheat;the duration of illumination was the most important to the growth of winter wheat at heading stage.In the double quantitative analysis,the meteorological factors,average relative temperature and the daily maximum temperature at seedling stage,the average relative humidity at tillering stage and the overwintering stage,and the mean wind speed at jointing stage had great influences on wheat yield,which could provide evidence for winter wheat production in Henan province.