人才何以成为红利——源于价值链攀升的证据

How Talents to Become Dividends——A Theoretical and Empirical Evidence of Climbing Global Value Chain

要素层次和要素质量是全球价值链分工体系下决定分工地位的基本因素,而要素组合对要素作用的发挥有重要影响。以此为逻辑起点,本文重点从"要素质量匹配"视角,以制造业价值链攀升为开放发展红利的例子,理论分析要素质量匹配对"人才红利"实现的关键作用,并利用中国经验数据对理论假说进行实证检验。理论分析表明,由于生产要素质量对价值链攀升的影响不仅取决于单一生产要素本身的质量,生产要素间匹配质量状况同样具有重要影响,即质量匹配程度越高,越有利于促进价值链攀升,因此,实现与技术和制度更好的匹配,有助于发挥人才促进价值链攀升的作用从而实现"人才红利"。就中国制造业而言,计量检验结果发现,单纯人才因素对价值链攀升呈倒"U"型作用趋势,而在充分考虑人才与技术和制度匹配等因素后则转变为显著正向线性作用趋势。这说明人才红利对中国制造业价值链攀升充分发挥作用的关键在于,人才与技术和制度之间的适宜性质量匹配。理论假说得到了较好的逻辑一致性检验。据此,在吸引和培育高端人才要素的同时,通过制度改革完善制度质量、加快实现产业技术进步、提升要素质量匹配效果从而为人才"松绑",是实现人才红利的重要举措,也是供给侧结构性改革的战略要义之一。

Factor quality is the basic factor that determines the division status under GVC,and factor combination has an important influence on the play of this function.In view of this,this paper describes the realization mechanism of“talent dividend”from the perspective of“factor quality matching+,and uses the Chinese empirical data to test the hypothesis.Theoretical analysis shows that,because the influence of the factors of production quality on GVC upgrading,it not only depends on the quality of the single factor itself,but also depends on quality matching with other factors.The degree of quality matching is higher,the more conducive to promoting GVC upgrading.Thus,achieve better match with the technology and system,which helps to play the role of the talents in realizing“talent dividend”.The empirical results show that,in terms of China’s manufacturing industry,purely talented factors’function on GVC upgrading shows the trend of inverted“U”type,and this trend becomes significant positive linear after taking full account of matching effect such as talent-technology match and talent-institution match.These findings mean that the key to the full play of the talent on China’s GVC upgrading depends on matching quality of talent-technology and talent-institution.Therefore,except for cultivating human capital,to improve the quality of institution system and speed up industrial technological progress so as to enhance the match quality of talent-technology and talent-institution,is an effective way to realize talents dividends and also has strong strategic implications of structural reform.