1993—2013年珠海市生态承载力及生态足迹分析

Analysis of ecological carrying capacity and ecological footprint of Zhuhai city from 1993 to 2013

运用生态足迹理论和方法,对珠海市1993—2013年的生态承载力、生态足迹以及生态盈亏进行分析,结果表明,珠海市的生态承载力在20年间呈现较大波动,大致呈现先升后降再回升的"马鞍形"曲线。由于人口持续增加,人均生态承载力呈现单边下降的趋势,20年间下降了44.76%。而珠海市1993—2013年的生态足迹先增加后减少,2003年达到了最大值、为752 688.0249 hm^2,之后逐年减少至2013年的630 081.1731 hm^2,人均生态足迹则呈现持续下降趋势。总体来看,1993—2013年珠海市的生态足迹一直大于生态承载力,表现为轻度生态赤字状态,但赤字程度有缩小趋势。预测珠海市大约能在2040年消除生态赤字,实现生态平衡。

Applying the theory and method of ecological footprint,the paper analyzed the eco-capacity,ecofootprint and eco-surplus of Zhuhai City from 1993 to 2013.The results showed that the city's eco-capacity fluctuated greatly during the 20 years,which is a“saddle shape”curve that is rose first,next dropped and then rebounded.As the population continues to increase,the per capita eco-capacity shows a trend of unilateral decline,which has dropped by 44.76%in 20 years.However,the eco-footprint of Zhuhai from 1993 to 2013 increased frist and then decreased,which reached a maximum value of 752 688.0249 hm2 in 2003.It decreased to 630 081.1731 hm2 in 2013 and was a trend of continuously decreased.Overall,the eco-footprint of Zhuhai has been greater than that of ecological carrying capacity from 1993 to 2013,Although it showed a mild deficit,there is a tendency of narrowing It is predicted that Zhuhai will eliminate the eco-deficit and get a balance in 2040.