后人口红利时代的中国新型发展战略——基于老龄化经济影响的视角

China's New Development Strategy in the Age of Post-demographic Dividend——A Perspective From the Impact of Aging on Economy

当前,我国历经近40年改革开放所赖以维系的人力资源禀赋在新的历史时期发生了变化,人力资源增量资本驱使下的经济高速增长正转变为人力资源存量资本驱使下的经济高质量增长。这充分说明我国长期依靠的人口红利时代的终结与后人口红利时代的开启。在后人口红利时代,由于人口规模增长与人口结构变化的不可逆特征,只有以突破人力资本增量边界为关键手段培育经济发展新动能,才能够彻底破除由于人口老龄化问题所带来的突出矛盾。

Currently,China’s human resource endowment which have been essential to 40 years reform and opening-up have undergone changes in the new historical era.High-speed economic growth driven by human resources incremental capital is transforming into high quality economic growth driven by human resource stock capital.This marks the end of age of demographic dividend and the beginning of the age of“post-demographic dividend”.In this new age,due to the irreversible feature of population growth and demographic changes,the critical issues of the middle-income trap caused by an aging population can be completely resolved only by breaking through human capital increment boundary to foster new drivers of economic development.