基于恒定市场份额模型(CMS)的中国烟草制品出口影响因素研究

Study on factors affecting export of China's tobacco products based on constant market share(CMS) model

恒定市场份额模型(Constant Market Share Model)是用来反映一国出口增长影响因素作用方向和作用程度的模型。本文运用恒定市场份额模型分析了我国烟草产品近15年来的出口数据,通过计量经济学手段测度了我国烟草产品在国际市场的产品结构效应、市场结构效应和产品竞争力效应,研究了我国烟草制品出口的影响因素。研究表明,我国烟草出口主要产品是烟叶,我国烟草制品在主要市场的竞争力逐渐减弱,但在新兴市场的出口额有所增加。

Constant Market Share(CMS)model was usually used to explain influencing factors on a nation’s export.In this paper,export data of China’s tobacco products over the last 15 years were analyzed using CMS model.Product structure effect,market structure effect and product competitiveness effect were calculated through econometric model,and China’s tobacco products’market competitiveness was assessed.Results indicated that leaf tobacco was the chief expor t commodity.Market competitiveness of China’s tobacco products was weakened in major markets,while it was strengthened in emerging countries.