水土流失治理效益与生态农业发展的耦合协调性分析

Coupling coordinative degree analysis on benefit of water and soil erosion control and development of ecological agriculture

构建生态、经济、社会和谐共赢关系是实现黄土高原区域可持续发展的必由之路。该文利用陕甘宁三省16个地级市2007-2014年的面板数据,基于耦合协调度模型分析了水土流失治理效益与生态农业发展水平的耦合协调态势,采用双变量空间自相关模型分析了两系统耦合协调度的空间集聚性。结果表明:研究区域水土流失治理效益和生态农业发展水平的耦合度较高,协调度偏低,耦合协调发展趋势滞缓,呈"低水平均衡"状态;空间集聚性整体逐步加强,但两级分化严重,"高—高"集聚区与"低—低"集聚区中间缺乏必要的"辐射枢纽",亟待培养新的集聚极点。因此,维持耦合发展势头,增强对外辐射;加强试点研究,突破协调发展瓶颈;培养新的集聚极点,缓解空间集聚两级分化是未来黄土高原区促进水土流失治理与生态农业协同发展的主要方向。

High importance has been put by government on the issues of water and soil erosion which are the key factors for sustainable development of agriculture in the Loess Plateau.There is a considering number of models to resolve this problem after several year’s practice.From the perspective of relationship and coupling of agricultural eco-economic system,some crisis is hidden in the process of establishing benign coupling relationship of agricultural eco-economic system.To achieve sustainable development in the area of Loess Plateau,it is necessary to build win-win situation among ecology,economy and society.In this study,we selected panel data from 16 prefecture-level cities in Shaanxi,Gansu and Ningxia Province from 2007 to 2014.On the basis of previous researches,the subjective and objective comprehensive weighting method named Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)and Variation Coefficient Method(CPA)were adopted to measure the weights of the evaluation indicators from the qualitative and quantitative perspectives.Based on the coupling degree model,the degree of mutual influence between the water and soil erosion management system and the ecological agriculture development system was explored from the perspective of the geomorphological features and prefecture-level cities for understanding the consistency of the system development situation as a whole.Based on the coordination degree model,the internal elements relationship between water and soil erosion management system and ecological agricultural development system was explored from the perspective of geomorphological features and prefecture-level cities for understanding the interaction relationship and coordination of every factor under different coupling stages.Using the bivariate spatial autocorrelation model,the coupling coordinative degree between the benefits of soil and water loss treatment and the level of ecological agriculture were taken as a measurement index.The index of measuring level of coupling degree of water and soil erosion control efficiency and ecological agriculture development:global and local degree Moran I indexes were calculated using Geoda software.Combined with LISA clustering analysis,in this paper,we analyzed the spatial distribution correlation of coupling degree between water and soil erosion control efficient benefits and ecological agriculture development to explore the coupling coordination state and development trend between water and soil erosion management and ecological agriculture development.Also,in this paper,we wanted to find the general laws of coupling and coordination between two subjects in order to provide scientific basis for policy development.The results indicated that the coupling level of water and soil loss erosion control benefits and the development level of ecological agriculture were generally high in the research area,but the degree of coordination was low and the development trend of coupling and coordination was slow,it presented a"low level equilibrium"state.The overall spatial agglomeration was gradually strengthened,but the two levels were severely differentiated.There was a lack of necessary“radiation hubs”between the“high-high”agglomeration areas and“low-low”agglomeration areas.New agglomeration poles were badly needed to be trained.Based on the above conclusions,we proposed the following policy recommendations:1)maintaining the momentum of coupling development,2)radiating development models,technology,and experience actively,3)increasing mutual support and cooperation among regions,4)strengthening pilot research,5)exploring key factors that stop coordinated development from multiple perspectives,6)breaking through the bottleneck of coordinated development,7)cultivate new agglomeration poles,8)increasing system resilience,and 9)easing spatial agglomeration.