流转税税收能力与税收努力的区域差异——基于2006～2015年全国31省数据的实证分析

The Regional Difference of Tax Capacity and Tax Effort of Turnover Tax——An Empirical Analysis of Data from 31 Provinces in China based in 2006～2015

基于我国2006~2015年的统计数据,立足产业划分角度运用代表性税制法对我国各地区流转税税收能力与税收努力进行了测算。结果显示:(1)我国东、中、西部流转税税收能力与实际税收收入的增长中税收努力做出的贡献东部分别为1.12%与1.08%、中部为-1.28%与-1.31%,西部为4.49%与4.69%。(2)流转税税收努力最高的是东部地区,西部地区次之,中部地区最低。税收能力则是东部最大,中部次之,西部最小。(3)东、中、西部流转税税收能力与税收努力在均值与中位数上都存在显著差异。(4)2012年的营改增试点政策对试点省份流转税税收能力的增能效应是存在的,但具有一定的不确定性。

Based on the statistical data of China between 2006 and 2015,this paper uses the Representative Tax System to examine the tax capacity and tax effort of turnover tax in different regions of China.The statistical results are as follows:(1)The contribution of tax effort in the growth of tax capacity and tax revenue of turnover tax is 1.12%and 1.08%in eastern China,-1.28%and-1.31%in central China,and 4.49%and 4.69%in western China respectively.(2)The eastern regionshave the highest tax effort of turnover tax eastern region,followed by the western regions and the central regions.As for tax capacity,it is the highest in the eastern regions,followed bythe central and western regions.(3)There are significant differences in the tax effort and tax capacity in different regions.(4)The Change from Business Tax to Value-Added Tax in 2012 does produce an effect of increasing the tax capacity of turnover tax,but this effect has some uncertainty.