基于网民心理的微博舆论传播模型及仿真研究

Spreading model and simulation analysis of microblog public opinion based on psychology of netizen

根据社交网络中微博舆论的传播特点,针对不同心理倾向的网民对舆论观点和传播的影响进行研究。通过分析微博事件得出舆论传播中网民的心理特征,并在此基础上构建了基于网民心理的微博舆论传播模型,研究了有向社交网络中不同群体中舆论观点的形成和传播特征。研究结果表明,舆论传播过程中网民的非理性心理会加速信息的传播和扩散,而且当信息可信度有争议时,非理性群体中的大部分个体会传播与该信息相反的观点;另外,当辟谣信息可信度发布不及时或可信度不高时,网民中的非理性心理会加剧该信息的反作用效果。最后通过实例分析验证,该模型与实际相符,可为引导微博舆论提供理论依据。

According to the propagation characteristics of microblog public opinion in the social network,this paper studied the influence of Internet users with different psychological inclination on public opinion and communication.Through the analysis of the psychological of microblog users in the dissemination of public opinion,this paper built the microblog public opinion propagation model based on the psychology of Internet users,and then studied the formation and propagation of public opinion in directed social networks.Simulation showed that the irrational psychology of Internet users would accelerate the spreading and diffusion of information in the process of microblog communication.Furthermore most of the irrational group spreaded the opposite view when the credibility of information was controversial.Research had also shown that when the credibility of microblog refuted rumor information was not high or the information release was not in time,the irrational psychological users would exacerbate the adverse effect of the information.Finally,through the instance data analysis,the model is consistent with the reality which can provide theoretical basis for guiding the public opinion of microblog.