财政自动稳定器有效性测定:来自中国的证据

Measuring the Effectiveness of Automatic Fiscal Stabilizers:Evidence from China

本文构建了嵌入财政自动稳定器的动态随机一般均衡模型,剖析了财政自动稳定器和生产性财政支出政策对稳定经济的四种作用机制:边际激励机制、可支配收入机制、再分配机制以及预防性储蓄机制。在此基础上,本文分别从税收体系、转移支付、生产性财政支出、全部财政稳定政策集成体系四个视角,考察了财政政策的经济稳定效应。研究发现:减税有助于稳定经济波动,尤其是减比例税,但减税的经济稳定效应弱于转移支付;生产性财政支出的经济稳定效应最强,但容易造成过度投资;由于中国税收体系不完善,个税主要由工薪阶层承担,产生福利扭曲效应;全部财政稳定政策集成体系的经济稳定效应优于单一财政政策。

This paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model,taking into account Automatic Fiscal Stabilizers(AFS)and Productive Fiscal Expenditures(PFE),and analyses the four mechanisms of the policy of AFS and PFE that influence the macro-economy,including marginal incentives,disposable income,income redistribution,and defensive saving mechanisms.In addition,by exploring the economic stability effects of AFS and PFE,this paper finds that:(i)tax cuts can help stabilize economic fluctuations,especially proportional taxes,but the economic stability effect of tax cuts is weaker than that of transfer payments;(ii)compared to AFS,the effect of PFE is much stronger,but it is also prone to overinvestment;(iii)due to the imperfections of the Chinese tax system,there is a distorted welfare effect;and(iv)the combined effect of fiscal stabilizers(AFS and PFE)is better than the effect of a single fiscal measure.