旅游减贫的门槛效应及其实证检验——基于中国西部地区省际面板数据的研究

Threshold Effect and Empirical Test of Tourism on Poverty Alleviation——Based on Provincial Panel Data in Western China

基于旅游业减缓农村贫困的重要意义,本文首先引入发展经济学的FGT贫困指数,分别从贫困广度、贫困深度和贫困强度三方面对西部地区贫困水平进行了测度分解。然后基于1999—2014年中国西部12省(市、自治区)的面板数据,以旅游业和经济增长作为门槛变量,通过构建面板门槛回归模型,对西部地区旅游业减缓农村贫困的非线性影响效应进行实证检验。结果表明:(1)旅游业发展水平在减缓农村贫困中呈现明显的门槛效应特征,当发展水平较低时,旅游业可以显著减缓农村贫困广度和深度;但当旅游业发展水平依次跨越门槛值之后,上述贫困减缓效应则不再显著,并且还存在加剧农村贫困强度的潜在倾向。(2)当人均实际GDP低于第一门槛值时,旅游业并未减缓农村贫困广度和深度;当人均实际GDP跨越门槛值之后,旅游业减缓农村贫困广度和深度的边际效应呈相反变化;而当人均实际GDP处于门槛值8717元前后区制时,旅游业对农村贫困强度的影响效应由负转正。(3)以人均GDP增长率衡量的经济增长速度对旅游业减缓农村贫困广度、深度和强度具有正向非单调性门槛效应。

Based on the importance of tourism in alleviating rural poverty,this paper first introduces the FGT poverty index in development economics to measure the level of poverty in the western region from three aspects:headcount index,poverty gap index and squared poverty gap indexThen,based on the panel data of 12 provinces(municipalities directly under the Central Government and autonomous regions)in western China from 1999 to 2014,and taking tourism and economic growth as threshold variables,this paper builds a panel threshold regression model to evaluate the nonlinear impact of tourism on rural poverty alleviation in the western regionThe threshold model estimation results show that:(1)The level of tourism development shows obvious threshold effect on alleviating rural povertyWhen the tourism development level is low,tourism can significantly reduce the headcount index and poverty gap index in the rural areaHowever,when the level of tourism development surpasses the threshold,the poverty alleviation effect mentioned above is no longer significantAnd in this context,tourism has the potential to exacerbate rural poverty(2)When the per capita real GDP is lower than the first threshold,the tourism industry does not slow down the headcount index and poverty gap index of rural povertyWhen the per capita real GDP surpasses the threshold,the marginal effect of tourism in reducing the headcount index and poverty gap index of rural poverty is oppositeHowever,when the per capita real GDP is around the threshold of 8717 yuan,the effect of tourism on rural squared poverty gap index changes from negative to positive(3)The economic growth rate,as measured by the growth rate of per capita GDP,has a positive nonmonotonic threshold effect on the headcount index,poverty gap index and squared poverty gap index of tourism in rural poverty reduction.