房价对中国经济增长质量的影响研究——基于286个地级及以上城市面板数据的实证研究

Research on Impact of House Price on Economic Growth Quality of China——based on the Empirical Study of Panel Data of 286 Cities at Prefecture and above

选取2004年~2015年中国286个地级及以上城市的面板数据,从经济增长质量视角出发,运用动态面板数据回归模型实证研究房价对经济增长的质量效应。得出如下结论:在样本期内,房价会对经济增长质量产生显著影响,房价与经济增长质量之间存在着倒“U”型关系,并且已经逼近拐点。分地区和分城市规模来看,房价对经济增长质量的影响具有明显的区域异质性,且这种差异在一二线城市和三四五线城市之间比东部、中部、西部之间更加明显。此外,创新、FDI和产业结构调整是提升中国经济增长质量的重要因素。

This paper selects the panel data of 286 cities at prefecture and above of China from 2004 to 2015,starts from the perspective of economic growth quality,uses dynamic panel data regression model to take empirical study on economic growth quality effect of house price.The conclusions are:during the sample period,the house price will have significant impact of economic growth quality,and there exists reverse“U”type of relationship between house price and economic growth quality which has approached to turning point.From the regional and cities scale,the impact of house price on economic growth quality has obvious regional heterogeneity,and this difference in first and second class cities and third,fourth and fifth cities is more significant than that in Eastern,Central and Western regions.Besides,innovation,FDI and industrial structure adjustment is the key factor to raise economic growth quality of China.