我国生猪价格波动影响因素研究——基于均衡价格理论

Research on the Impacting Factors on Hog Price of China——Based on Equilibrium Price Theory

进入新世纪以来,我国生猪价格波动经历了2003年~2006年、2006年~2010年、2010年至今三次起起落落,给生猪养殖户造成较大损失,也扰乱了群众日常生活。均衡价格理论认为,商品价格决定于市场供需双方的力量均衡,从这个角度来看,我国生猪价格波动是供需双方共同作用的结果。其影响因素主要有生猪生产周期、饲料成本、仔猪成本等供给层面的因素,收入水平、替代品价格等需求层面因素,以及通货膨胀情况、突发事件等其他因素,应该通过提高生猪养殖水平、提高生猪产业竞争力、建立健全生猪价格预警监控机制,更好地应对我国生猪价格波动,维护生猪市场稳定。

Since the new century,the hog price of China has endured three times rise and fall within 2003-2006,2006-2010 and 2010 till now,respectively,which has brought larger loss to hog farmers and disturbed daily life.From the equilibrium price theory,the commodity price is dependent on the power equilibrium of demand and supply parties,and the hog price wave is the consequence from the co-effect of demand and supply side.The impacting factors can be divided into hog production period,fodder cost,piglet cost of supply side,income level and substitute good price o demand level and inflation and emergency of other factors.We should cope with the hog price wave better and maintain the stability of hog market by raising hog production level,improving hog industry competitiveness and establishing and promoting hog price pre-warning monitoring mechanism.