城市高密度区域的犯罪吸引机制

Criminal Attraction Mechanism in Urban High-density Areas

随着高密度区域的层见叠出,城市高密度发展引发犯罪高度聚集;城市高密度区域的犯罪吸引机制亟待揭示。对此,可以城市密度定义犯罪引力,围绕城市变量与犯罪密度展开相关性分析。在制图验证犯罪热点分布于城市高密度区域的基础上,以逐步回归、地理加权回归等方法筛选出影响犯罪发生、分布的城市变量,建立犯罪引力模型,揭示城市高密度区域对犯罪的空间吸引、附随吸引、综合吸引、对冲吸引等机制。犯罪吸引机制研究构成了城市犯罪学"芝加哥范式"的当代演进,实现了"犯罪场"理论微观与宏观视角的一体化,勾勒出城市犯罪学的知识谱系;并且,从"迂回治理"的治理技术革新、储备型刑事政策的理念更新、技术治理的模式翻新等多个方面,为犯罪预测、预警、预防提供了理论支持。

With the rapid increase of high-density areas in cities,there has been a high concentration of crimes in these areas,hence an urgent need to clear up the doubts about the criminal attraction mechanism in high-density areas.In response to this problem,this article uses urban density to explain,assess and predict the attractiveness of crimes.Based on the assumption that criminal attraction is definitely related to the density of cities,it employs the correlation analysis method to identify the rule of urban density variables and criminal density variables,uses GIS(Geographic Information System)-based crime mapping to demonstrate that crime hot points are scattered over high-density areas,applies the stepwise regression method and the geographically weighted regression method to screens urban variables affecting crime occurrence and distribution,builds a criminal attraction model,and reveals criminal attraction mechanisms in urban high-density areas,which consists mechanisms for space attraction,attached attraction,comprehensive attraction,hedge attraction and so on.The research on criminal attraction mechanism,which constitutes the contemporary evolution of the“Chicago Paradigm”,integrates the macro perspective and the micro perspective into the“Crime Field Theory”,outlines the knowledge pedigree of urban criminology,and provides theoretic support for the“forecasting,warning and prevention”of crime.It reforms the approaches to circuitous governance by optimizing governance policies and techniques,renews the ideas of reserve criminal policy through the transformation from the emergency criminal policy to the reserve type of criminal policy,and innovates the models of technical control by realizing the technological revolution marked by information technology and artificial intelligence.