特大城市产业疏解政策下外来劳动力定居意愿的变化——以北京市为例

Changes in Migrants' Willingness to Settle Down under the Industry Relocation Policy in Megalopolis:Taking Beijing as an Example

近年来特大城市以产业疏解带动人口疏解的调控方式被广泛采用。本文以北京市为例,利用全国流动人口动态监测调查数据研究发现,2014-2016年北京市被疏解行业的外来劳动力定居意愿正在降低,产业疏解政策使得人力资本积累特征替代行业因素显著影响外来劳动力的定居意愿。具体表现为教育水平越低的流动人口,不定居意愿越强。但是这种替代只是在产业升级型疏解和低端服务型疏解中降低了低学历流动人口的定居意愿,而在城市定位功能型产业疏解中则没有影响低学历流动人口的定居意愿。产业疏解政策对高学历外来劳动力的选择性,虽然提升了特大城市的人力资本积累,但却进一步加大了城市之间的差距,削弱了城镇化的持续动力。因此,扩大城市功能定位型的产业疏解、减少低端服务业的产业疏解,以及充分发挥市场机制的作用进行产业升级型疏解,可能是今后特大城市政策调整的方向。

The governments of megacities have taken many measures to control the size of population.For example,population evacuation induced by industry relocation has been widely adopted in recent years.Using data from migrants population dynamic monitoring survey,the study shows that from 2014 to 2016,the willingness of migrants to settle in Beijing has been decreasing.Educational factors,instead of industry factors,have affected the settlement intention of migrants,as the industry relocation policy sorts population with their levels of education.Specifically,the lower the educational level the migrants have,the less likely they are willing to settle down.However,this industrial relocation primarily reduces the settlement intention of less-educated migrants in the low-end service industries,while the education level does not affect the settlement intention of migrants in the city s core industries.Further,although the migrant evacuation is conducive to a rapid upgrading of human capital in megacities,it further enlarges gaps with other smaller cities and brings disservices to many residents in the megacities.Therefore,the future direction of population control in megacities should focus on expanding the function-oriented industrial relocation,reducing the low-end service industry,and upgrading industrial sectors according to the market rules.